Year 2024 In Review- The Long Read

EFOW “Year 2024 In Review” Briefing Document (SUMMARY)

Briefing Document: Global Geopolitical & Energy Landscape Review (2024)

Introduction:

This briefing document summarizes key themes and critical insights from the collection of blog posts and reports dated throughout 2024, focusing on global geopolitics, energy transitions, Climate & UNSDGs and the pursuit of peace.

These excerpts from Adriaan Kamp’s “Blognotes Year 2024 in Review” chronicle a turbulent year marked by significant geopolitical events. Kamp analyzes the impact of the 2024 US Presidential election and its implications for global energy transitions, climate action, and international relations. He discusses the failures of Western climate policies, contrasting them with the progress made by China and the Global South. The blog also touches on the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the broader shift in global power dynamics. Finally, Kamp emphasizes the need for a new approach to international cooperation based on peace, humility, and shared values.

Year 2024 In Review: General

As we reflect on 2024, it’s essential to evaluate our progress towards the ambitious goals set by the United Nations in 2015, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the Paris Agreement,

and global peace initiatives.

This year has been a mix of achievements, ongoing challenges, and areas needing urgent attention.

Political Environment

2024 has been a year of significant political events and shifts. Major elections across the globe,

including in India, France, and the United States, have reshaped political landscapes.

While some regions have seen strides towards democratic governance, others continue

to grapple with conflict and instability, notably in the Middle East and Ukraine.

The political climate remains volatile, with geopolitical tensions impacting global cooperation on

critical issues like climate change and peacebuilding.

Economic Landscape

The global economy in 2024 has been marked by sluggish growth and persistent inflation.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a modest growth rate of 3.2% for 2024.

Despite efforts to stabilize economies post-pandemic, challenges such as trade tensions and

policy uncertainties persist. The call for a new paradigm of prosperity that balances productivity

with equity and sustainability has gained traction, emphasizing the need for inclusive economic growth.

Social Issues

Social challenges remain at the forefront, with issues like crime, drug use, immigration, and

poverty continuing to dominate legislative agendas.

The global housing crisis, gender inequality, and climate change are pressing concerns that

require sustained attention. While there have been efforts to address these issues, progress has

been uneven, and much work remains to be done to achieve social justice and equity.

Ecological and Environmental Progress

2024 has seen both remarkable achievements and stark warnings in the ecological domain.

The UK became the first G7 nation to phase out coal power completely,

However, 2024 also marked the hottest year on record, with global temperatures exceeding

the critical 1.5°C threshold. Biodiversity loss and environmental degradation continue to pose

significant threats, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and conservation efforts.

Country Specifics

State of the European Economy

The European economy has faced significant challenges over the past few years. In 2023, economic activity broadly stagnated, with major economies like Germany and the UK potentially in recession. The European Union (EU) collectively has a GDP of almost €16 trillion, making it one of the largest economies globally. However, inflation remains a concern, expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 20243.

Public Mood and Support for President von der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has faced mixed reactions. Her ambitious plans, including a new defense policy and AI initiatives, come at a time of economic strain and geopolitical tension. While she has managed to consolidate power and push through significant policies, public opinion is divided. Some appreciate her efforts to boost the EU’s competitiveness, while others are critical of the economic challenges and the handling of the Ukraine conflict.

Sentiment on the Ukraine Conflict and Peace Negotiations

The war in Ukraine has deeply affected public sentiment across Europe. Many Europeans are weary of the ongoing conflict and its economic repercussions. In Poland, a majority now support ending the war, even if it means making concessions to Russia. In Russia, there is growing support for peace negotiations, with many citizens feeling the war has caused more harm than good.

Views on NATO Militarisation and Spending

Support for NATO remains strong among its member countries. A majority of respondents in a recent survey agreed that their country should defend a NATO ally if attacked and supported increased defense spending. However, opinions on the new spending bill and militarisation vary, with some concerned about the long-term implications of increased military expenditure.

Desire for Peace

There is a significant desire for peace and negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine. Many Europeans and Russians alike are calling for diplomatic solutions to bring stability back to the region. The sentiment is that while military support is necessary, a lasting peace can only be achieved through negotiations.

Russia

The state of the Russian economy, public mood, and support for President Putin have all been significantly impacted by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the resulting tensions with the West.

State of the Russian Economy

The Russian economy is currently facing several challenges. Despite some outward signs of stability, such as reported GDP growth, the economy is under significant strain due to high military spending, rising inflation, and the impact of Western sanctions. The Central Bank of Russia has raised its key policy rate to 21% to combat inflation, but this has not fully mitigated the economic pressures. The economy is described as “overheating,” with a significant portion of resources being directed towards the war effort.

Public Mood in Russia

Public opinion in Russia regarding the war in Ukraine is complex. While there is a significant portion of the population that supports the war, there is also a notable level of fatigue and frustration. Surveys indicate that support for the war fluctuates, with around 60-75% of Russians expressing support, depending on the polling method and framing of questions. However, there is also a consistent minority that opposes the war, and the prolonged conflict has led to increased social tensions and economic hardships for many Russians.

Support for President Putin

President Putin’s approval ratings have remained relatively high throughout the conflict, often hovering around 70-80%. This support is partly due to a “rally around the flag” effect, where national crises tend to boost the approval ratings of leaders. However, this support is not uniform across all demographics, with younger and urban populations showing more skepticism compared to older and rural demographics. Despite the challenges, Putin has managed to maintain a strong base of support, although the long-term sustainability of this support remains uncertain as the economic and social costs of the war continue to mount.

CHINA

State of the Chinese Economy

China’s economy has been facing some challenges recently. In the last quarter, it grew at a rate of 4.6%, which fell short of the official target of 5%. Despite efforts to boost growth, including reducing mortgage rates and increasing government spending, consumer confidence remains low, and the real estate market continues to struggle. However, there are still areas of optimism, such as the rapid growth of new industries and green technologies.

Public Mood and Support for President Xi Jinping

Public sentiment in China is complex. While traditional surveys often show high support  for President Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), more anonymous methods reveal a significant drop in support. When surveyed anonymously, support for Xi and the government drops by nearly 30 percentage points. This suggests that while public expressions of support are high, there may be underlying dissatisfaction.

Partnership with Russia, BRICS, and Belt and Road Initiative

China’s partnership with Russia has deepened, especially in the context of the Ukraine conflict. This relationship has both strategic and economic dimensions, with China gaining access to discounted Russian commodities. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to be a significant part of China’s foreign policy, aiming to enhance global trade and infrastructure. However, this partnership has also strained China’s 

relations with Europe and the United States.

Desire for Peace with the USA

There is a notable desire among the Chinese public for peaceful relations with the USA. High-level meetings between Chinese and American leaders have emphasized the importance of cooperation and mutual respect. Many Chinese citizens hope for a stable and constructive relationship with the USA, recognizing the benefits of economic and diplomatic cooperation6.

Views on NATO Militarisation and Spending

The Chinese government has been critical of NATO’s increased militarisation and spending. Official statements often highlight concerns about NATO’s actions undermining global stability and security. Public opinion in China tends to align with the government’s stance, viewing NATO’s expansion and spending as a threat to regional and global peace7.

Ukraine

The mood in Ukraine after three years of war with Russia is a mix of resilience, fatigue, and a desire for peace. Many Ukrainians are exhausted by the prolonged conflict and the constant threat of attacks, especially in regions close to the front lines. Public opinion has shifted, with about half of the population now supporting a quick negotiated peace.

Regarding their leadership, opinions are divided. Some Ukrainians appreciate President Volodymyr Zelensky’s efforts and the resilience shown by the military, while others are critical of the prolonged conflict and the hardships it has brought. The contributions of NATO and Western allies are generally seen positively, as they have provided crucial military and humanitarian support.

The Ukrainian economy has been severely impacted by the war. The agricultural sector, once a major part of the economy, has been disrupted, leading to challenges in food production and supply. Food prices initially spiked but have since stabilized, although the overall economic situation remains difficult. Daily expenditures for many Ukrainians have increased, and the cost of living has become a significant concern.

Global South

The Global South, including countries like India and those in Africa, as well as the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), have diverse perspectives on the Western economic market and development model. Here are some key points:

  • Critique of Western Models: Many countries in the Global South criticize the Western economic model for its focus on shareholder value, speculation, and the concentration of wealth among billionaires. They argue that this model often leads to economic inequality and social instability.

  • Desire for Reform: There is a strong push among these nations for a more inclusive and equitable global economic system. They advocate for reforms in global governance institutions to better represent their interests and address their development needs.

  • Alternative Approaches: The BRICS nations, in particular, are exploring alternative development models that emphasize sustainable growth, social welfare, and regional cooperation. They are also investing in institutions like the New Development Bank to support infrastructure and development projects in the Global South.

  • Economic Sovereignty: Countries in the Global South are increasingly asserting their economic sovereignty and seeking to reduce dependence on Western financial systems. This includes diversifying trade partnerships and investing in local industries.

  • Pragmatic Engagement: While critical of certain aspects of the Western model, many Global South countries still engage pragmatically with Western economies. They seek to balance their own development goals with the benefits of global trade and investment.

Overall, the Global South and BRICS nations are advocating for a more balanced and fair global economic order that addresses their unique challenges and aspirations.

Overall- and in the Commons:-

What Went Well

Renewable Energy: Significant progress and demonstration of renewable energy capacities to scale

( “The great Electrification”) , particularly in Grids, EVs, solar and wind power, with China clearly leading.

Climate Action: the phasing out of coal power in some regions

Political Engagement: High voter turnout and democratic participation in key elections.

Areas Needing Attention

Conflict Resolution: Escalating conflicts and geopolitical tensions require urgent diplomatic efforts.

Economic Stability: Addressing inflation and ensuring equitable economic growth remain critical.

Social Equity: Tackling issues like housing, gender inequality, and poverty with more robust policies

and actions.

Urgent Improvements Needed

Climate Change Mitigation: Accelerating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance climate resilience.

Biodiversity Conservation: Implementing stronger measures to protect ecosystems and biodiversity.

Global Cooperation: Strengthening international collaboration to address shared challenges and

achieve the SDGs.

Key Themes and Ideas:

The Fragile State of Global Peace and Security:

Escalating Conflicts: The ongoing war in Ukraine is a central concern, seen not just as a regional conflict, but as a proxy war between ideologies and a potential catalyst for wider global instability. The author notes the increasing involvement of countries like North Korea and Yemen on the Russian side, as well as the increasing weaponisation of the conflict with more advanced (hypersonic) missile technology.

“When “your opponent, stated- or made enemy” starts to launch some Mach-10/11 missiles at you- and missiles you can no longer stop – You may ask Yourself if you have been understanding your situation, and are on the right road or track, with all this and that, all along,:”

Nuclear Threat: The specter of nuclear conflict is a constant, with concerns about reduced decision times for the use of nuclear weapons and the potential for a devastating nuclear exchange. The author also highlights the important work of the Hibakusha (survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) in raising awareness of the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons.

Rising Tensions: There is an overall rise in global tensions, with the author expressing concern about increasing polarization and divisions, which is not only hampering global cooperation on issues like climate change but is also fostering the rise of “populist and nationalistic views.”

Need for Reconciliation: There is a persistent call for dialogue and reconciliation, including a “Yalta summit” equivalent between major powers to restore trust and foster peace.

“Our world should help us to feel safe, as we and our World should help our Enemies to feel safe and wish for Peace. A truth and reconciliation or ‘Yalta summit’- in and between- would be a very welcome restoration, reparation plan”

The Shift in Global Power Dynamics:

BRICS Expansion: The expansion and growing influence of the BRICS bloc is a recurring theme. The author highlights the BRICS nations as a key driver for a new world order that is more focused on the Global South, representing an alternative to the Western-led order. This includes efforts to create independent financial systems and challenge Western dominance in global institutions.

“Chairman, President XiJinping, together with the host President Putin, let there be no doubt that the now flowering BRICS unity and further formation – is focused on the realization of new rules and/or institutes in our present world order, and for a new and more social just working approach – towards the Global South.”

East vs. West: The documents portray a clear divide between the Western-led world order and the rising influence of the East and Global South, with the Ukraine conflict and the COP29 negotiations as examples of this ideological battle. This division extends to views on economic development models, energy policy, and global governance.

“Remember: the War in and over the Ukraine, between Putin Russia (backed by China, and Rest) is and has also become “a War over Ideologies”: The Western-styled Development Model, and with present International World Order (“Free-Capital Markets or Ẅestern Elite & Greed”) vs. A World Order based on more Chinese , Russian, Asian- or Global South Characteristics.”

Loss of Western Influence The author highlights the loss of Western (EU) reputation and notes the difficulties western leaders are having making themselves heard and/or understood by countries in the Global South.

Turkey Joining BRICS: The possibility of Turkey, a NATO member, joining BRICS further underscores the shifting geopolitical landscape.

The Urgent Need for Energy Transition and Climate Action:

Fossil Fuel Dependence: The continued dependence on fossil fuels is viewed as a major obstacle to achieving a sustainable future. The author is critical of “Big Oil” companies and what he perceives as their lack of commitment to a true transition, accusing them of “highly immoral (portfolio) opportunism” and of using their lobbying power to prevent meaningful change.

“…given by BigOil over the last decade – and in the hands of Western Political Leadership and lobbied over the world- have hardly made a dent in (true) Oil, Gas and Climate Outlook- (“is no longer listened to by the East nor the South”) and is really really hurting (” biting us back”) and standing in the way of our better working approach(es)-and good future making:”

Missed Opportunities: The author notes the lack of progress on goals set in Paris, and the need for a more focused and effective strategy. There’s also a strong criticism of Big Oil’s reliance on greenwashing and ineffective offset schemes.

“So- my surprise, how now- almost a decade “after Paris” – these Gentlemen of Fortune are put upon a pedestal. Do we still know discernment? what is right or wrong, good or bad?”

Critical Minerals: The growing demand for critical minerals for renewable energy technologies is also a concern, emphasizing the need for responsible sourcing and equitable distribution.

UN SDGs: The UN Sustainable Development Goals are seen as a necessary framework for global development, but progress is deemed to be too slow. There is skepticism about the lack of commitment to these goals, particularly from within the EU.

The Importance of Diplomacy and Peacebuilding:

Types of Peace: The author distinguishes between three types of peace: (1) peace between armed enemies, (2) arranged/negotiated peace, and (3) deep peace (based on understanding and harmony). The documents advocate for the latter, deeper approach to peace and global relations, but acknowledges we are stuck mostly in the first or second types.

“What (Form of) Peace do we aspire? And with that- I encourage ourselves to distinct between three types of Peace: 1. Peace between armed enemies, Peace in and between armed conflicts 2. Arranged Peace. A Negotiated Peace – and an Rules-Based Organised Peace., 3. Deep Peace. Peace between the Parties, and from a deeper understanding and wish to see and understand the Other Well, and to aim for Harmony.”

Need for Trust: A recurring theme is the need to rebuild trust between nations and between governments and their people. The author suggests that a “Perestroika & Glasnost” equivalent within Western societies is needed, and criticizes existing political leadership for not doing enough to bridge the gaps between people and governments.

Missed Voices: The author laments the loss of “the Voice of Reasonable Doubt” and other moderate voices needed for peacemaking. The author notes how the tone of voice and lack of mutual respect are impeding progress on important global challenges.

Critique of Western Systems and Leadership:

Shortcomings of Western Models: The author is critical of current Western political and economic systems, describing them as driven by greed and short-term profit. He sees them as inadequate to address the complex challenges facing the world, also noting how Western approaches are no longer listened to by the Global South and the East.

“The Western Multi-National BigOil Corporations have a long history and transition of great leadership and achievements. However, somewhere in the 90s and when the neo-liberal markets crossed the worlds, many of our too big to fail BigOil corporations became portfolio operations and optimisation machines”

Lack of Vision: There is a concern that Western leaders are more focused on militarization and weaponization than on diplomacy, and that they lack the vision to promote a better future.

EU Concerns: The documents also express concern about the role and direction of the European Union, highlighting potential division in the bloc and questioning its commitment to global cooperation. The EU is seen to be losing its “Peace, Lighthouse” identity, becoming overly militarised and mirroring the behaviour of its rivals.

Conclusion:

The sources paint a picture of a world at a critical juncture. The old certainties are crumbling under the combined pressure of escalating conflicts, shifting power dynamics, the climate crisis, and the growing discontent with Western-led systems. The author advocates for a fundamental shift in thinking and action, calling for a greater commitment to peacebuilding, sustainable development, and the rebuilding of trust between nations and peoples. The need for diplomacy and a “deep peace” is emphasized over the present trajectory of heightened militarisation and geopolitical rivalry. A re-evaluation of the global economic and energy systems is called for, with criticism leveled at the lack of progress on critical challenges, and the perceived failings of the current global governance.

Recommendations:

  • Prioritize Diplomacy: Focus on diplomatic solutions and de-escalation of conflicts, avoiding further militarization.
  • Embrace Multilateralism: Support and strengthen the UN and other multilateral institutions.
  • Commit to Sustainable Transition: Accelerate the energy transition and move away from fossil fuels, with true action, and not by ineffective offsets.
  • Engage in Dialogue: Foster dialogue and understanding between different worldviews, and in particular listen to the voices of the Global South.
  • Rebuild Trust: Invest in building trust between nations and within societies, and address the underlying causes of conflict and division.
  • Re-imagine Global Governance: Actively seek for better forms of global governance that can effectively address present and future global challenges.

This briefing document serves as a starting point for further analysis and discussion on how to navigate the complex challenges facing the world in 2025 and beyond.

EFOW “Year 2024 In Review” Briefing Document (part 2)

Executive Summary:

This document analyzes a series of blog notes (from mid-year onwards) reviewing the year 2024, focusing on geopolitical shifts, climate change discussions, and the evolving world order. The author, Adriaan Kamp, observes a world increasingly divided by ideological differences and economic power struggles. Key themes include the rise of BRICS, the West’s diminishing influence, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the challenges of climate change negotiations, and the urgent need for peace and reconciliation. The document also highlights the failures of the existing global governance structures and the call for a new approach to diplomacy and cooperation.

  1. Geopolitical Shifts and the Evolving World Order:
    • Rise of BRICS: The notes consistently emphasize the growing influence of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and their aim to reshape the global order. There is a clear narrative of BRICS challenging the established Western-dominated system.
    • “We must work together to build BRICS into a primary channel for strengthening solidarity and cooperation among Global South nations and a vanguard for advancing global governance reform,” – Xi Jinping
    • West vs. Rest: The author frequently refers to a growing divide between “the West” and “the Rest” (Global South/East), fueled by historical grievances and differing economic models.
    • “The Western-styled Development Model, and with present International World Order (“Free-Capital Markets or Ẅestern Elite & Greed”) vs. A World Order based on more Chinese , Russian, Asian- or Global South Characteristics.”
    • New Alliances: The emergence of new alliances is highlighted, with Russia aligning with China, Iran, and North Korea. This is framed as a counter-balance to Western influence.
    • Key Chokepoints: The strategic importance of geographical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, often surrounded by BRICS nations, is emphasized. These areas are seen as points of tension and potential control over global trade.
    • “Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and UAE (/Saudi) are all located next to some most important global maritime choke points”
    • Re-militarization and Weaponization: Concerns are raised about the increasing militarization in Europe in response to the Russian aggression and the rise of nations as ‘Hard Powers’. The author questions what type of Peace is being aspired to.
    • “What (Form of) Peace do we aspire?
    • NATO’s Role: The appointment of Mark Rutte as the new NATO SG is mentioned. His speeches and tone are noted for their potential impact on the European economy by signaling a preparation for war.
    • “On the moment that you declare that you are preparing for “a War”, a “War Economy” ie. “fear in your economy”- trust and investments into your normal (European) economy and the budgets needed for investment in infrastructure, (energy) transitions and innovations ( re. Sustainable industry) will stall.”
  1. Conflicts and Tensions:
    • Ukraine War: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is a central theme, with the author noting Russia’s increasing control of the battlefield and the addition of North Korean special forces to its military. There’s also mention of Russia’s capabilities for launching high-speed missiles.
    • “To know, that your (made) enemy can now launch missiles at you- with “the speed of light”- and wipe-out at the “City of London” or “Helsinki” or “A Nato Ammunition Base or Camp”- within 2 or 5 minutes.”
    • Gaza Conflict: The conflict in Gaza is also highlighted, with concerns raised about the unwavering approach of Israeli leadership and the emotional impact in other nations.
    • “Echoes of Gaza: Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore confront legacy of war”
    • Risk of Nuclear War: The texts note that “the nuclear taboo” is under pressure with modernizations and upgrades of nuclear arsenals and threats to use them in warfare. Concerns are raised that these weapons have the power to destroy civilizations.
    • “At this moment in human history, it is worth reminding ourselves what nuclear weapons are: the most destructive weapons the world has ever seen.”
    • “A nuclear war could destroy our civilisation.”
    • Escalating Arms Race: The author expresses alarm about the increasing use of long-range missiles and the crossing of “red lines” in warfare.
    • “Slowly, but surely- and by virtue of our re-militarization, weaponization and “open wars”, we are crossing some new red-lines, and are entering in new frontiers, untested territories- in and with arms, and how we go about them.”

III. Climate Change and COP29:

    • Failure of Western Approach: The notes critique the Western approach to climate change, stating that it has “failed” due to its focus on maintaining existing corporate interests and its one-dimensional focus on net-zero strategies.
    • “the Western approach and narrative on Climate Action (Net Zero)- strategies and policies, largely promoted by IEA, BigOil & Industries, Banks and Consultants- and adopted by Western Governments and broadcasted around our world has been falling short and has so far failed.”
    • “Pay Up” Narrative: COP29 is framed as a showdown, with the Global South demanding that the West “pay up” for climate damages. The discussion centers on the 1.3 trillion USD/annum needed for LDCs.
    • “Next year COP30, in Brasil, is for sure to upend and solidify the given words (“Pay Up”)- in more concrete action or demands:”
    • “Rich (and neo-colonial) West: So- the West has to Pay to the Rest (Global South).”
    • Ideological Conflict: The climate negotiations are seen not just as an environmental issue but also as a battleground for ideological differences and global power dynamics. The author notes COP29 revealed that the current international world order is being challenged.
    • “Remember: the War in and over the Ukraine, between Putin Russia (backed by China, Iran, North Korea and Rest) is and has also become “a War over Ideologies:”
    • Big Oil’s Role: The author is critical of Big Oil companies and their approach to the energy transition, noting a prioritization of profits over meaningful change. He suggest that governments should take “a golden share” to guide the transition.
    • “The Western Multi-National BigOil Corporations have a long history and transition of great leadership and achievements. However, somewhere in the 90s and when the neo-liberal markets crossed the worlds, many of our too big to fail BigOil corporations became portfolio operations and optimisation machines.”
    • Science and Reality: There is a continuous reminder that despite decades of warnings and 29 COPs, emissions are still rising and that the current trajectory leads to a 3-degree Celsius warming, a reality that the author sees as unacceptable.
    • “Unfortunately, and after 29 COPs, emissions are still to rise, and the present best estimate and outlook of what this century of economic- and human development will bring us, is 3 degrees Celsius warming by century end.”
  1. Call for a New Approach:
  • Peace and Reconciliation: A strong theme is the need for peace, with calls for “a truth and reconciliation” or a “Yalta summit” to address the deep divides in the world.
  • “Our world should help us to feel safe, as we and our World should help our Enemies to feel safe and wish for Peace.”
  • Diplomacy Over Warfare: The author stresses the need for diplomacy over military action, criticizing the current trend of prioritizing military solutions.
  • “The damages done, the loss of human lives, the damage to EU reputation standing, the echo-chamber of EU Political Leadership, and National Parliaments- who have all embraced Military and New Weaponization thoughts Over Diplomacy ( Not Military With Diplomacy, or Diplomacy Over Warfare)”
  • Three Types of Peace: The author presents 3 distinct types of peace, ranging from a ceasefire between warring parties to a deep, harmonious peace based on mutual understanding.
  • _”1. Peace between armed enemies, Peace in and between armed conflicts 2. Arranged Peace. A Negotiated Peace – and an Rules-Based Organised Peace., 3. Deep Peace. Peace between the Parties, and from a deeper understanding and wish to see*
  • “and understand the Other Well, and to aim for Harmony.”
  • UN Reform: There is recognition of the need for UN reform to address the current issues effectively, referencing the “UN 2.0” and the “Summit of the Future.”
  • “Idea and intent of this summit is to align countries and to help re-organize the UN organisation-in order to allow it to be functional and meet the global common good agenda- for the decades to come.”
  • Listening and Heart: There is emphasis on the need for good diplomacy and listening with the heart in order to achieve these goals.
  • “The Art of Good Diplomacy (and the Use of Words!)”
  • “The Art of Good Listening (with the Heart)”

Other Notable Points:

  • Trump’s Return: The author observes Trump’s return to power and the potential consequences, noting his administration is being staffed with loyalists and billionaires.
  • “With “a club of billionaires and loyalists”staffing his administration, President Trump guns are now loaded multiple ways:”
  • Hibakusha Testimony: The significance of the Hibakusha (survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki) in establishing the nuclear taboo is emphasized.
  • “The testimony of the Hibakusha – the survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki – is unique in this larger context.”
  • “The Overview Effect”: The “Overview Effect”, reported by astronauts viewing Earth from space, is mentioned as a way to understand the fragility of the world.

Conclusion:

These blog notes present a bleak but realistic assessment of the state of the world in 2024. They highlight the need for fundamental shifts in global governance, diplomacy, and economic models. The author calls for a move away from militarism, a more equitable approach to climate action, and a genuine effort to build trust and understanding between nations. The urgency and scale of these challenges are repeatedly emphasized, alongside the need for a more “healthy” and “hopeful” worldview to guide future action.

EFOW “Year 2024 – In Review” Briefing Document (part 1) : Global Challenges, Energy Transitions, and the Need for Rebuilding Trust

Introduction:

This document synthesizes a collection of tweets, articles, and reports curated by Adriaan Kamp of “Energy for One World” (EFOW) spanning from early 2024. The overall theme is a critical analysis of the current state of the world, characterized by geopolitical instability, energy crises, climate change challenges, and a decline in global trust. Kamp calls for a paradigm shift towards “Good Future Making,” emphasizing the need for peace, cooperation, and responsible leadership, particularly within the energy sector. He also highlights the growing rift between the “West” and the “Global South” and the urgency of addressing these divides.

Key Themes and Ideas:

Geopolitical Instability and Polarization:

Increased Global Tensions: The world is described as “polarized, divided, uncertain, risky and dangerous” due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the development of new alliances (e.g. Russia-North Korea). Kamp notes President Putin’s new pacts and the rise of “populist and nationalistic views” as contributing factors.

Nuclear Risks: There is significant concern around the potential use of nuclear weapons, particularly highlighted by a statement that Russia could reduce decision time for their use.

Erosion of Multilateralism: The document points to a decline in global cooperation, evidenced by countries ranking low on UN engagement, with the United States ranked 193rd out of 193 countries. Kamp notes “the five countries most committed to UN-based multilateralism are: Barbados (#1), Antigua and Barbuda (#2), Uruguay (#3), Mauritius (#4), and the Maldives (#5).”

The “Western Canon” vs. the “Global South”: Kamp questions the relevance of Western-centric approaches to global challenges, asking, “But how well is this attuned with the Canon of the Rest? The Global South, Middle-East, Asia?” He stresses the importance of incorporating the perspectives of Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia and Africa.

Lack of trust and rising nationalism: There is a call for the need to rebuild trust, with Kamp mentioning “Re-building Trust (Wef Davos 2024)- EFOW from Energy for One World” as a concept and priority.

Energy Crisis and the Flaws in Current Transition Strategies:

Energy Insecurity: The core message is that “we have NOT energy for one world, nor are we moving towards this,” highlighting the urgency of changing current energy practices. There’s emphasis on the need to have a “all-people, all-energies, all-technologies approach to secure energy” which seems to contradict the prevailing opinion.

Big Oil’s Irresponsibility: Kamp is critical of the “highly immoral (portfolio) opportunists” in Big Oil, calling their behavior “shamelessly irresponsible.” He criticizes oil companies for positioning themselves as “takers” while shifting responsibility for energy transitions to politicians and society. He specifically criticizes Shell CEO’s claim that his company is only a “taker” while “politicians and society were the ‘shapers’ of the Energy Transitions -to be.” Kamp says that “without commitment, full support, ownership and responsibilities from the BigOil firms over the “Great Electrification” (thus transition away from the use of fossil fuels)- our future path is – in the words of SG Guterres- ‘a highway to hell’.”

Ineffectiveness of Current Solutions: He states that “most if not all the lobbied (and non-performing: change and no change) programs of Green Hydrogen, CCS, Credit systems, NBS, Offsets, ETS, Consultancy Abatement Spreadsheets, etc, etc – given by BigOil over the last decade – …have hardly made a dent.”

LNG as a “Niche” Solution: The document critiques the reliance on LNG, characterizing it as energy-intensive, environmentally damaging, and not a “mainstream” solution for a sustainable energy transition. Kamp also adds the problem of “earthquakes, water- and chemical pollutions”.

Climate Change and the Unsustainable Path:

Off-Track Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): While some regions like BRICS and East/South Asia have made progress, “the gap between the world’s average SDG performance and the performance of the poorest and most vulnerable countries…has widened since 2015.”

Food and Land Systems Crisis: SDG targets related to food and land are “particularly off-track,” with predictions of 600 million people still suffering from hunger by 2030, rising obesity rates, and significant greenhouse gas emissions from land use.

Economic Damage: Kamp notes a “Guardian report: economic damage of 1 degrees climate change, 6-fold bigger than earlier understood”.

“Pilates” behavior: Kamp quotes Pope Francis calling Big Oil’s present form of conduct “Pilates” which he himself labels highly immoral.

A Call for a New Approach: “Good Future Making”:

Focus on Practical Priorities: Kamp emphasizes the need to identify “the 5 (or 10) key or Top Priorities, which we are to deliver over coming 6- 12 months.”

Rebuilding Trust and Cooperation: A recurring theme is the need for “Re-building Trust” and a more collaborative approach between nations and different sectors. He calls for a “Yalta” between the US, China, and Russia for peace.

Emphasis on Holistic Solutions: Kamp promotes an approach that integrates “Deep Peace, Deep Humanity and Deep Ecology.” He also suggests considering the ‘Tree of Life’ in addition to the ‘Tree of Knowledge’.

Moral Leadership: Kamp calls for a “Corrective & Responsible Leadership” and criticizes the (past) “misdemeanors” of those in charge. He also criticizes the “lobbing for market and level playing fields” for hampering progress.

“The heart listens and speaks”: Kamp quotes Yo-Yo Ma who claims “The music is written between the notes- and when played between ourselves- that is where the beauty begins”.

The Growing Divide and Shifting Alliances:

East vs West: The document notes a clear separation and lack of trust between the West and the East/Global South. Kamp notes that “The War in the Ukraine has created a new gap in Energy Land: The Resource Rich or Needing Countries of the East and the South are no longer working with or listening to the West”. He also notes that “OPEC and Minister Novak- of Russia- were rather clear on the world they are seeing and shaping, away from Western block, nonsense and statistics- and developing Asia and the Global South with new oil and gas.”

BRICS+ Development: The document highlights that BRICS+ countries have “outpaced the world average” in their development towards SDGs.

New Economic Order: There are multiple mentions of a BRICS-led independent payment system being developed, and also a new trading bloc between the Global South and Russia.

The role of China and Russia: Kamp notes that “Putin has become the longest serving Kremlin leader – for over 200 years” and notes he has “become a feat and reality (better) not to be ignored.” Kamp also mentions “Xi JinPings visit to Europe” and that China is seeing “steady improvement in ecological environment in 2023”.

Specific Quotes and Examples:

  • On the state of the world: “our world, and because of our wars in the Middle-East and Ukraine, have become ever more polarized, divided, uncertain, risky and dangerous.”
  • On the energy crisis: “Houston- we’ve got a problem” and “Today, we have NOT energy for one world, nor are we moving towards this, and that is better to change.”
  • On Big Oil’s leadership: “Highly immoral (portfolio) opportunists. (Shamelessly) Irresponsible.” and ““You can be Sure of Shell”: Highly immoral (portfolio) opportunists.”
  • On the ineffectiveness of current solutions: “most if not all the lobbied (and non-performing: change and no change) programs … have hardly made a dent in (true) Oil, Gas and Climate Outlook.”
  • On the need for trust: “We need a “Yalta” between US, China and Russia- for Peace, Peace-making and Keeping.”
  • On current approaches to leadership: “It is the way of our leadership learning, or Quality formation of Men and Women, that our future is shaped.”

Analysis and Conclusion:

The document paints a grim picture of the current global situation, characterized by a confluence of crises. Kamp’s analysis goes beyond a mere description of these problems. He directly confronts the shortcomings of current energy transition strategies, the lack of ethical leadership in the oil industry, and the urgent need for global cooperation and trust.

His call for “Good Future Making” is not just a slogan, but a plea for a radical shift in thinking and practice, particularly in energy. It is a rejection of short-term gains and narrow self-interests in favour of a holistic approach that prioritizes peace, justice, sustainability, and a sense of moral responsibility. He challenges both business and political leaders to step beyond nationalistic agendas and collaborate on common solutions. He calls for a “Perestroika & Glasnost” in Western governance of energy business and economies. He ends with the idea of an orchestra and symphony, highlighting how people from different areas and specialties have to work together, listening to each other, to produce the best outcome.

This collection of sources strongly suggests that business as usual is no longer an option, and that fundamental changes in both mindset and behavior are necessary to navigate the complex challenges of the 21st century.